| 李磊,刘早云,王天宇,宋敏.外部需求冲击、“超级明星”出口企业与劳动收入份额变动——基于生产网络视角[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(1):80-107 |
| 外部需求冲击、“超级明星”出口企业与劳动收入份额变动——基于生产网络视角 |
| External Demand Shocks, Superstar Exporters, and Labor Income Share Changes: Based on the Production Network Perspective |
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| 中文关键词: 外部需求冲击 出口企业 劳动收入份额 生产网络 |
| 英文关键词: External Demand Shock Exporters Labor Income Share Production Network |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 提高劳动收入份额是实现共同富裕的重要路径 。在当前外部需求不确定性加剧的背景下，深入探究外部需求变动对企业劳动收入份额的影响具有重要现实意义 。本文从生产网络视角出发，系统分析外部需求冲击及其通过上下游溢出效应对企业劳动收入份额的直接与间接影响 。理论上，本文构建了 一个包含企业异质性和内生竞争机制的垄断竞争模型，揭示了外部需求冲击通过市场规模效应与内生竞争效应共同作用于企业劳动收入份额的机制路径 。实证研究发现，正向（负向）外部需求冲击显著降低（提升）企业劳动收入份额，且该效应在出口规模较大的“超级明星 ”出口企业中更为明显 。 同时，外部需求冲击还通过生产网络产生溢出效应，间接影响关联企业的劳动收入份额 。异质性分析表明，外部需求冲击对非国有企业、规模较大或生产率较高企业以及资本或技术密集型行业企业的影响较大 。进一步研究发现，《反垄断法》的实施在一定程度上缓解了正向外部需求冲击对“超级明星 ”出口企业劳动收入份额的负面效应，有助于收入分配的公平 。本文为积极推动外贸规模“稳中求进”，推动全国统一大市场建设，同时完善收入分配制度、促进共同富裕提供了政策启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| China’s economy has entered a stage of high-quality development, where promoting such development and achieving common prosperity are major challenges in the new era. Increasing the labor income share in primary distribution is an effective approach to realizing common prosperity. As the main actors in international trade and the key units of employment, firms form the micro-foundation of the final income distribution structure through the internal allocation of labor outcomes in response to export demand shocks. Therefore, examining the impact of external demand shocks on the domestic economy, particularly on the labor income share of Chinese firms, is crucial. Moreover, with the advancement of the unified domestic market, inter-firm supply and sales linkages have become increasingly close. Whether external demand shocks generate spillover effects among firms in different sectors through the domestic production network is worthy of exploration.Existing studies mostly focus on the impact of trade on overall income or employment. However, there is still a lack of systematic empirical research on how external demand shocks influence labor income share at the firm level, especially through the diffusion mechanism across industries via production networks. This study combines data from the China Industrial Enterprise Database, customs statistics, and the CEPII-BACI dataset. It constructs a firm-level indicator of external demand shocks based on the shift-share method and incorporates firm-level input-output linkages to measure upstream and downstream spillover effects. This study empirically examines both the direct and indirect effects of external demand shocks on the labor income share of firms.The results reveal that external demand shocks significantly reduce firms’ labor income shares, and this negative effect is exacerbated by larger export scales. In addition, external demand shocks indirectly influence the production decisions and factor income distribution of upstream and downstream firms through input-output relationships in domestic production networks. Mechanism analysis reveals that external shocks affect labor income share through market size effects and endogenous competition effects. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative impact is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, large or high-productivity firms, and those in capital- and technology-intensive industries. Further analysis reveals that the implementation of the Anti-Monopoly Law mitigates the negative impact of external demand expansion on the labor income share of “superstar” exporting firms and contributes to fairer income distribution.Based on these findings, this study offers the following policy implications: First, export expansion should be aligned with the growth in labor compensation. A “minimum labor income share” guideline can be introduced to encourage firms to increase their distribution to labor during expansion. However, during periods of external demand contraction, phased tax and fee reductions, job stabilization subsidies, and other supportive policies should be implemented to help firms sustain operations and stabilize employment, thereby mitigating the decline in labor compensation. Second, the redistribution system and antitrust mechanisms should be improved to prevent income concentration in a few “superstar” firms, while strengthening their social responsibilities. Finally, greater attention should be paid to the spillover effects of external shocks in production networks. Differential tax and income adjustment policies should be formulated for core firms and small- and medium-sized enterprises to leverage their roles in achieving common prosperity.In summary, this study adopts a firm-level perspective to systematically examine the mechanisms through which external demand shocks affect the labor income share and proposes corresponding policy responses. It not only enriches the research perspectives on international trade and income distribution but also provides empirical evidence and policy recommendations for promoting high-quality development and common prosperity. |
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