| 贾智杰.收入差距、边际消费倾向与财政政策效果——基于中国财政政策评估模型的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2026,(1):53-79 | | 收入差距、边际消费倾向与财政政策效果——基于中国财政政策评估模型的分析 | | Income Inequality, Marginal Propensity to Consume, and the Effects of Fiscal Policy: An Analysis Based on the Fiscal Policy Assessment Model of China | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 财政政策 财政补贴 边际消费倾向 居民收入 可计算 一般均衡模型 | | 英文关键词: Fiscal Policy Fiscal Subsidies Marginal Propensity to Consume Household Income Computable General Equilibrium Model | | 基金项目: | | | 中文摘要: | | 在逆全球化趋势和内部需求不足等多重挑战下，哪类财政政策具有更高的乘数和更佳的宏观效果？ 本文从不同收入群体和边际消费倾向分析这一问题 。本文基于一般均衡框架和货币数量理论，构建了中国财政政策评估模型，该模型耦合了货币政策特征、不同收入群体的收支特征以及经济主体的债务行为，并测度了政策引致的收入侧和使用侧的希克斯等价变动 。本文评估了具有相同资金来源的，以支出、减税和补贴为特征的六类财政政策的经济效益与社会效益 。结果表明，财政支出和减税的乘数为 0.3~0.5，其累退性质导致高收入、低边际消费倾向群体获益更多，财政政策注入内循环的资金可能产生较大的泄漏 。但是，居民和消费的财政补贴政策具有累进性质，更加偏向低收入、高边际消费倾向的群体，乘数为 0.8~1.3，带来的经济增长可以缓解赤字压力，并显著提升低收入群体的福利，促进共同富裕 。最后文章强调不能片面追求多政策的协同效应而忽略更应关注的不同政策的成本效益问题，并提出了“三建议一警惕”。 | | 英文摘要: | | China is currently confronted with a combination of deglobalization pressures, weakening external demand, and insufficient domestic consumption, all of which have heightened the challenge of sustaining economic growth and macroeconomic stability. Although active fiscal policies, including government spending, tax reductions, and public investment, have long been a key stabilizing force, their effectiveness is increasingly uncertain. Concerns regarding diminishing fiscal multipliers, limited demand stimulation, and rising fiscal pressures call for a systematic reassessment of different fiscal instruments. A central premise of this study is that fiscal policy design must incorporate household heterogeneity, especially differences in income levels and marginal propensities to consume (MPCs). Targeting high-mpc, low-income groups can generate stronger stimulus effects, reduce leakage, and improve fiscal sustainability; yet most existing policies do not fully reflect this principle.To address this gap, this study develops a new fiscal policy evaluation framework—the fiscal evaluation model for China (FEMC). The model integrates micro-level heterogeneity with macro-level consistency by combining detailed household microdata from the China Family Panel Studies and a social accounting matrix derived from input-output tables. Unlike traditional DSGE or computable general equilibrium models that rely on representative households or homogeneous behavioral assumptions, FEMC explicitly disaggregates households by income tier and urban-rural status. This allows the model to capture crucial differences in income structure, consumption behavior, saving rates, liquidity constraints, and debt dynamics. The framework further incorporates the quantity theory of money, a monetary transmission mechanism, and a Lewis-type macro closure rule to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of fiscal policy effects across the real and monetary sectors.Using FEMC, the study simulates six fiscal instruments financed by the same scale of one trillion RMB in special government bonds, which are government investment, government consumption, corporate tax cuts, personal income tax cuts, general household subsidies, and consumption-specific subsidies. The model evaluates their impacts on GDP, employment, prices, and government revenue, while quantifying welfare changes across income groups using Hicksian equivalent variation and decomposing welfare into income- and use-side components.The results indicate clear and significant differences across policy tools. Government spending and tax cuts generate relatively low multipliers-approximately 0.3 to 0.5-due largely to the regressive nature and diminishing marginal effects of these policies. High-income groups, characterized by low MPC, receive a disproportionate share of the benefits. As a result, much of the policy-induced income leaks into savings rather than stimulating domestic demand, limiting the policies’ effectiveness under China’s current income distribution structure. In contrast, household-oriented subsidies demonstrate markedly stronger macroeconomic and distributional effects. Both general and consumption subsidies have multipliers in the range of 0.8 to 1.3, substantially higher than spending or tax policies. As they target high-mpc groups more directly, these subsidies generate more immediate and substantial increases in consumption, production, and employment.Importantly, the resulting economic expansion broadens the tax base, producing partial fiscal feedback that alleviates deficit pressure. Welfare analysis further reveals that subsidies significantly improve the welfare of low-income households and advance the goal of common prosperity.Mechanism analysis reveals that household MPC heterogeneity is the key driver behind these policy differences. Stimulus directed toward liquidity-constrained, consumption-oriented households yields stronger and faster demand responses, amplifying multiplier effects through production and labor market channels. These findings imply that enhancing income equity and stimulating economic growth are mutually reinforcing policy objectives rather than conflicting goals.Based on the findings, the study proposes “three recommendations and one caution” as follows: (1) avoid excessive expansion of government spending and tax-cut policies, (2) prioritize subsidy-based fiscal policies, (3) optimize the design and targeting of local consumption vouchers, and (4) be cautious about potential delayed inflation associated with large-scale subsidies. | | 查看全文 相关附件： 下载数据代码附录 |
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