| 邵全权.保险业发展与经济增长的多重均衡[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(2):3-18 |
| 保险业发展与经济增长的多重均衡 |
| Insurance Industry Development and Multiple Equilibrium of Economy Growth |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 保险业发展 经济增长 多重均衡 门槛效应 |
| 英文关键词: Insurance Industry Development Economic Growth Multiple Equilibrium Threshold Effect |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文在拉姆齐—卡斯—库普曼斯框架下构建了保险业发展影响经济增长的理论模型，模型显示保险业发展与经济增长之间存在门槛效应和多重均衡现象，在保险业发达情形下，经济增长和保险业发展相互促进，保险业不发达情形中经济增长存在低水平陷阱。在理论分析的基础上，以寿险业为例，运用中国各省市1999~2010年的面板数据，通过面板数据门槛回归估计的结果显示：寿险业发展可以促进经济增长；随着人均GDP和保险密度进入更高的区制，寿险业发展对经济增长的促进作用显著提高；当相对寿险深度跨越更高的门槛值后，寿险业促进经济增长的程度降低。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This paper builds up a model to establish the causal link between insurance industry development and economic growth in the framework of Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans economic growth model. In the case of developed insurance industry, economic growth and insurance industry development can promote each other. In the case of developing insurance industry, there is a low level equilibrium trap in economic growth. The model also shows there is threshold effect and multiple equilibrium in the relation of insurance and economic growth. Furthermore, by using the panel data for 30 Chinese provinces during 1999~2010 with threshold panel data model, the results show that life insurance industry development can promote economic growth; the promoting effect of life insurance will increase will reduce with GDP per capita and insurance density reach the higher threshold; the promoting effect of life insurance will reduce will increase with relative insurance penetration reach the higher threshold. |
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