文章摘要
Liang Laicun.Trigger Value Determination and Ratemaking of Flood Insurance for Grain Crops[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2020,(9):160-177
粮食作物洪涝保险的触发值确定与费率厘定
Trigger Value Determination and Ratemaking of Flood Insurance for Grain Crops
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 粮食作物洪涝天气指数保险触发值费率厘定
英文关键词: Grain Crops  Flood Weather Index Insurance  Trigger Value  Ratemaking
基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金项目“粮食作物巨灾风险的天气指数保险：费率厘定与政府支出测算研究”（17BTJ030）的资助。
Author NameAffiliation
Liang Laicun Guangxi Centre of Finance and Economy，Guangxi University of Finance and Economic 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标：探讨粮食作物洪涝保险的触发值确定、费率厘定的方法。研究方法：基于概率分布理论确定触发值，以参数法厘定保险费率。研究发现：触发值确定、费率厘定的方法是：设计基于降水量的统计量，按照概率分布理论确定触发值；设计洪涝测度指标，测算洪涝灾害的严重程度；计算气候减产率，反映粮食作物因天气灾害而减产的程度；构建气候减产率关于洪涝测度指标的计量模型，测算洪涝测度指标的期望，以参数法厘定洪涝保险费率。以长沙县早稻为例，运用该方法确定了相应的触发值，厘定了保险费率。研究创新：利用概率分布理论解决了洪涝天气指数保险触发值的确定问题，使触发值的确定具有数理依据、费率厘定更加科学。赔付概率、触发值、费率厘定有机地联系在一起，更符合实际。研究价值：理论上丰富了农业保险精算理论，实践上有利于农业保险的健康发展。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper discusses the methods of trigger value determination and ratemaking on flood insurance for grain crops.Research Methods: This paper determines the trigger values based on Probability Distribution Theory and calculates the rates with the parameter method.Research Findings: The methods of trigger value determination and ratemaking have been studied in this paper， including designing statistics based on precipitation to determine trigger values according to Probability Distribution Theory， establishing flood measurement indexes to measure the severity of flood disaster， calculating the climate reduction rate to reflect the reduction degree of grain crops by climate factors， establishing the econometric models of the climate reduction rate about flood measurement indexes and calculating the expectations of flood measurement indexes to determine the flood insurance rates by parameter method. As a case of the early rice flood insurance of Changsha County， the trigger values and insurance rates are determined by this method.Research Innovations: Utilizing Probability Distribution Theory， the problem of determining the triggering values of flood insurance has been solved. It makes the trigger value determination have mathematical basis and the ratemaking more scientific. The compensation probability， the trigger values and the ratemaking are organically linked.Research Value: This research enriches the actuarial theory of agricultural insurance in theory and is conducive to the healthy development of agricultural insurance in practice.
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