文章摘要
Zhao Hang,Wu Di.A Comparative Study of Two Methods of Decomposing Income under the Permanent Income Hypothesis[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2019,(3):38-58
持久收入假说下两种收入分解方法的比较研究
A Comparative Study of Two Methods of Decomposing Income under the Permanent Income Hypothesis
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 持久收入  农村居民消费  双向固定效应  变系数面板
英文关键词: Permanent Income  Rural Residents Consumption  Two way Fixed Effect  Variable Coefficient Panel
基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金西部项目“社会主义市场经济发展的历史逻辑研究：基于争论的考察与借鉴”（15XKS020）的资助。
Author NameAffiliation
Zhao Hang School of Economics, Nankai University 
Wu Di School of Economics, Renmin University of China 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标：基于弗里德曼提出的持久收入假说，分别考察我国各地区农村居民持久收入和暂时收入对消费的影响，并寻找出它们之间最优拟合关系的面板模型。研究方法：分别构建固定效应、随机效应、滞后因变量双向固定效应、变系数等面板模型对弗里德曼和苏良军等的收入分解方法进行优劣对比。研究发现：苏良军等的收入分解方法整体优于弗里德曼的收入分解方法。研究同时发现，采用滞后一期消费的动态面板模型拟合效果相对最优。研究创新：在采用弗里德曼的收入分解方法计算持久收入时没有臆测滞后期，而是使用ARIMA模型寻找最优滞后期。在采用苏良军等的收入分解方法时使用面板单位根检测，证明面板协整模型并不适用于拟合其模型。研究价值：本文采用当今世界比较前沿的经济、计量理论和模型，利用我国最新的官方数据，寻找出更优拟合我国各地区农村居民消费与持久收入、暂时收入的面板模型，方便政策制定者制定出更具针对性的政策。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: Based on Friedmans permanent income hypothesis, the effects of the permanent income and temporary income of rural residents in China on consumption were investigated, and the panel model between them was foundResearch Methods:The panel models of fixed effects, random effects, bidirectional fixed effects of lag dependent variables, and variable coefficients were used to compare the advantages and disadvantages of Friedman and Su Liangjuns income decomposition methodsResearch Findings: The study found that the income decomposition method of Su Liangjun is better than Friedmans income decomposition method and the effect of the first time lag dependent variable panel model is relatively optimalResearch Innovations:In the calculation of permanent income using Friedmans income decomposition method, there is no guessing lag period, but the ARIMA model is used to find the optimal lag period; when using the income decomposition method of Su Liangjun, the panel unit root detection is used Proof panel co integration models are not suitable for fitting their models Research Value:This paper uses the most advanced economic and measurement theories and models in the world today, and uses the latest official data from China to find a panel model that better fits the consumption and sustainable income and temporary income of rural residents in various regions of China, so that policy makers can make more targeted policies
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