文章摘要
Liu Meng,Dai Xiang.Does the “Law of Decreasing Importance of International Trade” Hold?[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2018,(12):61-80
“国际贸易重要性渐减规律”成立吗?
Does the “Law of Decreasing Importance of International Trade” Hold?
  
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中文关键词: 全球价值链  贸易“新”乘数  产出上游度  投入产出关系
英文关键词: Global Value Chain  Trade “New” Multiplier  Output Upstream  Input-Output Relationship
基金项目:本文受到国家自然科学基金面上项目“以‘一带一路’创新牵引中国区域产业转移、转型并高质量发展的机理、路径与政策研究”(71873030),江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目“高质量增长阶段扩大江苏服务业开放对产业结构升级的影响机制、路径及对策研究”(2018SJZDI100)的资助。
Author NameAffiliation
Liu Meng School of Economics and Management, Southeast University 
Dai Xiang School of Economics, Nanjing Audit University 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:揭示中国产业结构优化升级的空间非均衡、地区差距及收敛性特征。研究方法:利用空间趋势面分析和标准差椭圆技术刻画中国产业结构优化升级的空间非均衡格局,运用Dagum基尼系数揭示其地区差距及其来源,并通过多种收敛方法对其收敛性进行经验检验。研究发现:中国的产业结构优化升级呈现显著的空间非均衡性,地区间差距是总体差距的主要来源。产业结构合理化存在β收敛和俱乐部收敛。产业结构高度化存在σ收敛、β收敛和俱乐部收敛。研究创新:从合理化和高度化两个维度考察产业结构优化升级的空间非均衡特征,并将空间效应纳入其收敛性研究中。研究价值:为促进地区产业结构协同优化升级提供决策支持。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: With the sluggish global trade and the weak growth of China‘s foreign trade, whether China can get rid of the “law of decreasing international trade importance”. Research Methods: Based on the input-output circular correlation model, this paper deduces the trade “new” multiplier under the condition of global value chain from the mathematical level. Further utilizing the WIOD basic data to measure and empirically analysis the 2000~2014 Chinese trade “new” multiplier value. Research Findings: The global value chain division has changed the mechanism of trade‘s effect on economic growth under traditional division. Input-output mechanism will amplify the influence of trade on economic growth, while the “importance of international trade” will not only gradually decrease but will gradually increase. Research Innovations: Based on the global value chain input-output mechanism, the “new” multiplier of trade‘s role in economic growth was reconstructed, measured and analyzed. Research Value: In view of the current situation of weak global economic growth and insufficient development momentum, this paper provides some evidences and orientation for China to use the trade “new” multipliers to drive the recovery of output.
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