| Huang Xiulu,Ge Pengfei,Wu Xiaoxu.The Cross Characteristic and Discrepancy Decomposition of Industrial Capacity Utilization in China[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2018,(9):61-77 |
| 中国工业产能利用率的地区行业交叉特征与差异分解 |
| The Cross Characteristic and Discrepancy Decomposition of Industrial Capacity Utilization in China |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 产能利用率 产能过剩 DSBM模型 Dagum基尼系数 |
| 英文关键词: Capacity Utilization Overcapacity Dynamic SBM Dagum Gene Coefficient |
| 基金项目:本文获得国家自然科学基金青年项目（71603204）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究目标：本文旨在考察中国工业分地区分行业动态产能利用率的时空演进的交叉特征事实以及东中西部和重轻工业的差异和来源分解。研究方法：基于中国工业分省分行业10231个样本数据，运用DSBM模型、Dagum基尼系数进行实证研究。研究发现：中国工业的产能利用率为74.65%，整体不存在严重的产能过剩；东部、中部、西部分别为79.58%、61.72%、63.64%，东部工业整体无产能过剩，中部和西部存在严重的产能过剩；重轻工业的产能利用率分别为74.56%和75.14%，产能过剩在重轻工业层面表现不显著。趋势特征上，中国工业的产能利用率的时间演变与中国宏观经济特征相吻合，具有明显的顺周期性；东部的产能利用率受2008年全球金融危机影响严重，中西部则在经济“新常态”以后下降明显；重工业的宏观经济烙印明显，并且易受全球金融危机的影响，而轻工业则表现出持续下降特征。进一步的差异识别发现，工业整体产能利用率的地区差距主要源于东部、中部、西部地区间交叉重叠的差异；总体重轻工业差异主要由于重轻工业内不同行业的影响。即产能过剩实质是地区与行业过剩产能的交叉结果。研究创新：本文通过引入厂商的跨期生产决策，重新审视中国工业产能利用率地区和行业的差异来源，为产能过剩的进一步治理提供支撑。研究价值：本文的结论对深化供给侧结构性改革“去产能”的未来工作重点有导向作用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Research Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cross characteristics of the dynamic capacity utilization of industries in each province and industries in China. Research Methods: Based on 10231 sample data of China‘s industrial departments, using the DSBM model and Dagum Gini coefficient to empirical research. Research Findings: Chinese industrial capacity utilization rate is 74.65%, there is no serious overcapacity. In China, eastern, central and western capacity utilization are 79.58%, 61.72%, 63.64%, eastern industrial has not overcapacity, but, there are serious overcapacity in central and western China. Heavy industry and light industry are 74.56% and 75.14%, overcapacity is not obvious in the heavy and light industry. The trend of characteristics, the evolution of China industrial capacity utilization are consistent with the macroeconomic characteristics, having obvious procyclicality. Eastern capacity utilization rate is seriously influenced by the 2008 global financial crisis, and the Central and Western are decreased significantly after the new economic normality. Heavy industry have obvious macroeconomic characteristics, and vulnerably impact by the global financial crisis, and light industry shows a declining feature. Further difference identification shows that the regional disparity of the capacity utilization is mainly due to the overlapping differences between the eastern, central and western. The difference between the heavy and the light industries is mainly due to the impact of different industries in the industry. That is, the essence of overcapacity is the cross result of the excess capacity of the region and the industry. Research Innovations: By introducing the intertemporal production decisions of enterprise, this paper will re-examine the sources of differences in China‘s industrial capacity utilization, and provide support for further governance overcapacity. Research Value: The conclusion of this paper has a guiding role in deepening the future work of “cutting overcapacity” in the structural reform of the supply side. |
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