文章摘要
Zhang Huan,Xu Kangning,Sun Wenyuan.Urbanization, Education Quality, and Middle Income Trap[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2018,(5):40-58
城镇化、教育质量与中等收入陷阱
Urbanization, Education Quality, and Middle Income Trap
  
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中文关键词: 城镇化  教育质量  中等收入陷阱  经济持续增长
英文关键词: Urbanization  Education Quality  Middle Income Trap  Sustained Economic Growth
基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金重大项目“世界经济的重大结构性矛盾及其深刻影响研究”（17ZDA096）；国家自然科学基金项目“环境规制对就业的影响：理论、实证与对策研究”（71573136）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD）的资助。
Author NameAffiliation
Zhang Huan School of Economics and Trade, Nanjing Audit University 
Xu Kangning School of Economics and Management, Southeast University 
Sun Wenyuan School of Economics and Trade, Nanjing Audit University 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标：对于城镇化、教育质量与中等收入陷阱的关系进行实证分析。研究方法：通过构建1960~2015年115个国家的跨国面板数据，利用面板分位数模型估计方法。研究发现：城镇化和教育与高收入国家经济发展减速的相关性不大；两者的联合交互作用对中上等收入国家的影响最强，而且影响幅度由低分位到高分位呈现递增态势；高等教育对中下等收入国家和低收入国家的经济持续增长有正向影响，而城镇化的影响作用和方向与其反之。其他影响因素中，政府干预、物价指数的负向作用对所有类别国家都较显著；对外开放、资本形成率则对经济长期持续增长有益；人口红利消失并非一国陷入中等收入陷阱的根本原因。在控制内生性问题后，同时按OECD国家、非OECD国家、剔除非洲国家等标准重新分组，用系统GMM两步估计法所得结论同样一致和稳健。研究创新：以城镇化为依托的教育质量提升是跨越中等收入陷阱的关键。研究价值：为经济政策制定者提供参考借鉴。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives： Analyzing the relationship among urbanization, education quality and middle income trap. Research Methods： Utilizing transnational panel data of 115 countries from 1960 to 2015, and quantile regression estimation technique. Research Findings： Urbanization and education are not closely related to economic growth slowdown for high income countries; while the interaction item of the two impacts upper middle income countries the most, and the impact range shows a increasing trend from low quantile to high quantile; higher education positively influences the sustained economic growth for lower middle income and low income countries, but urbanization impacts the opposite way. For other influencing factors, government intervention, and consumer price index have significant negative impact for all types of countries; openness, and capital formation rate are beneficial for long term economic growth; the disappearance of demographic dividend is not the root cause for middle income trap. After considering endogeneity problem, and also regrouping the samples by OECD countries, non-OECD countries, excluding African countries, the consistent and robust conclusions are also arrived at by using system-GMM two-step estimation method. Research Innovations： Verification on the improvement of education quality through urbanization is the key to avoid middle income trap. Research Value： Providing reference for economic policy makers.
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