文章摘要
Ge Yangqin,Xie Jianguo.Research on Driving Factors of Decline inChinas Export Growth[J].The Journal of quantitative and technical economics,2018,(2):24-43
中国出口增速下降的驱动因素研究
Research on Driving Factors of Decline inChinas Export Growth
  
DOI：
中文关键词: 增加值出口  国外需求  全球生产分工  分层式结构分解法
英文关键词: Value Added Export  Foreign Demand  Global Fragmentation of Production  Hierarchical Structural Decomposition Analysis
基金项目:本文为国家自然科学基金项目“强制性生育政策、低生育陷阱与中国经济的长期增长：微观机理与实证检验”（71473118）阶段性成果，本研究同时受到教育部重点研究基地重大项目“长江三角洲全面建设小康社会中的开放发展研究”（16JJD790025）、安庆师范大学校内青年基金项目“产业转移背景下安徽省外贸结构与产业结构的耦合性研究”（SK201407）和农业部农业国际交流合作项目“‘一带一路’背景下的中国农机‘走出去’战略研究”（GHS1715）的资助。
Author NameAffiliation
Ge Yangqin School of Economics, Nanjing University；School of Economics and Management, Anqing Normal University 
Xie Jianguo School of Economics, Nanjing University 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标：研究2011~2014年中国出口增速下降的驱动因素。研究方法：从增加值贸易视角运用分层式结构分解法（HSDA）。研究发现：中国出口增速下降既有周期性因素，也有结构性因素；其中，国外需求下降是决定性因素，贡献度为859%，受需求水平下降和需求结构变化共同影响；生产分工变化是重要影响因素，贡献度为136%，主要受前向产业关联变化和国内生产分工调整影响；增加值系数变化影响较小，仅为05%。研究创新：基于GMRIO模型将多种因素纳入统一的分析框架，定量分析各因素对中国出口增速下降的影响。研究价值：对处于转型期的中国外贸维持出口平稳增长有重要的现实意义和实践价值。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper studies on the driving factors of decline in Chinas export growth Research Methods: Using hierarchical structural decomposition analysis(HSDA) based on value added trade Research Findings: Both cyclical factors and structural factors contribute to the decline in Chinas export growth Decrease in foreign demand, which is influenced by both demand level and demand structure, is the crucial factor and accounts for 859 percent of the decline Moreover, change in global fragmentation of production contributes to 136 percent, where change in Chinas forward linkage and domestic fragmentation play a major role However, change in value added coefficients only accounts for 05 percent Research Innovations: This paper integrates multiple factors into a unified analytical framework and quantifies the effect of each factor on the decline in Chinas export growth Research Value: The conclusions has significance to stabilize Chinas export growth in the transition period
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