| 李小明.中国经济波动与增长的福利成本分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(4):34-45 |
| 中国经济波动与增长的福利成本分析 |
| On the Welfare Costs of China’s Business cycle Fluctuations and Economic Growth Variation |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 经济波动 经济增长 总福利成本 边际福利成本 |
| 英文关键词: Business cycles fluctuations Economic growth variation Total welfare costs Marginal welfare costs |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本文借鉴Lucas（1987）及Alvarez和Jermann（2004）的研究模型，将非平稳的消费序列分解为周期波动成分和增长趋势成分，估算中国经济波动与经济增长的总福利成本和边际福利成本，得到以下主要结论：（1）无论是经济波动还是经济增长方面，边际福利成本均为总福利成本的2倍左右。（2）中国经济波动与增长的福利成本在1952~2010年呈现显著的阶段性特征，1952~1990年间经济波动的福利成本显著大于1991~2010年间，而后一阶段经济增长的福利成本也远远大于前一阶段。结合这一发现，我们认为宏观调控应增强中国经济的稳定性，着重防范内外部因素对经济增长趋势的不确定冲击。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This article uses the models proposed by Lucas (1987) and Alvarez and Jermann (2004) for reference. Decomposing the non-stationary consumption sequence into the growth trend component and business-cycle fluctuations ingredients, we estimate the total welfare costs and marginal welfare costs of business cycle fluctuations and economic growth variation of China. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) In comparison, estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of total welfare costs. (2) The welfare cost of China’s business cycle fluctuation in 1952~1990 is obviously larger than the welfare cost of China’s business cycle fluctuation in 1991~2010, and the welfare cost of China’s economic growth variation in the later stage is far much larger than the previous stage. Combing with this finding, we believe that the macroscopical control should enhance the stability of the China’s economy, and guard against the uncertain impacts of internal and external factors to economic growth trend. |
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