文章摘要
林发勤,周默涵,刘梦珣.扩大内循环可促进外循环的微观效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2022,(9):114-133
扩大内循环可促进外循环的微观效应
The Micro Effect of Enlarging the Inner Circulation Promotes the Outer Circulation
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 双循环  “家电下乡”  双重差分  相互促进
英文关键词: Double Circulation  “Home Appliances to the Countryside”  Difference-In-Difference  Mutual Promotion
基金项目:本文获得国家自然科学基金面上项目“贸易摩擦对金融风险的因果影响、内在机理和防范政策研究”(72073128)、国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目“全球背景下优化中国农业补贴促进农业食物系统转型”(72061147002)、国家社科基金重点项目“‘一带一路’农业对外投资风险防范对策研究”(19AZD012)的资助
作者单位
林发勤 中国农业大学经济管理学院全球食物经济和政策研究院 
周默涵 浙江大学经济学院 
刘梦珣 中国农业大学经济管理学院 
中文摘要:
      双循环新发展格局是新形势下中国参与国际合作和培育竞争新优势的重要举措,但其中又包含怎样的微观机制?本文建立理论模型,并利用2007~2012年中国实施的“家电下乡”财政补贴政策的准“自然实验”作为工具变量,考察“家电下乡”政策所引致的内循环促进外循环的问题。理论分析表明,当对国内销售进行补贴时,企业边际回报增加,国内销售额上涨,使得企业投资生产率提高,从而降低国内销售和出口的边际成本。其结果是,出口因边际成本的降低获得增长。因此,国内销售促进出口增加是由企业内部生产率提高带来的溢出效应。研究发现,“家电下乡”显著促进了国内家电产品销量增加,在此基础上,家电产品内需的增加显著促进了其出口。该结果在不同时间段、增加行业控制变量、不同地区和分省份回归以及不同的倍差估计情形中均表现出很强的稳健性。这些发现表明,家电产品内需对外需具有很强的促进作用,首次为国内外双循环相互促进新发展观中的内循环促进外循环部分提供了微观理论机制和相关实证证据。
英文摘要:
      The new development pattern of the double circulation is an important measure to cultivate Chinas new advantages in international cooperation and competition under the new situation. What are the microscopic mechanisms involred? Based on the background with profound changes, this paper discusses the micro effect and mechanism of mutual promotion of domestic circulation promoting international circulation. In order to find the theoretical basis and empirical evidence for the new development pattern. On the whole, the double circulation development pattern largely reflects the perspective of reform, which covers a wide range from commodities to factors. What this paper discusses is actually the relationship between internal and external demand for goods. Although it cannot cover the whole content of double cycle development pattern. But it can serve as a local substitute, or it can represent a narrow two cycle relationship. It can provide some theoretical and policy thinking for the double cycle development pattern. Political economy theory, macroeconomics theory, new trade theory and new economic geography theory all explain the profound theoretical connotation and deep internal logic of double cycle development pattern. Relevant empirical research also provides the basis for the construction of double cycle development pattern. On the basis of previous studies, this study further studies the influence of domestic demand promotion policy on internal and external circulation, and discusses its mechanism in depth. This paper establishes a theoretical model and uses the fiscal subsidy policy of “home appliances to the countryside” implemented by the state from 2007 to 2012 as a quasi “natural experiment” to provide an answer. The model shows that when there is a subsidy to domestic sales, there is a surge in domestic sales because now the marginal return increase. This however creates an incentive for firms to invest in productivity, which lowers the marginal cost of selling both domestically and exporting. As a result, export also increases due to the lower marginal cost. We call this channel the productivity spillover channel. Through the establishment of instrumental variables from a difference in difference econometric model with the fiscal policy, this paper studies the mutual promotion effect on the internal and external circulation of “home appliances to the countryside” products. The results show that “home appliances to the countryside” policy significantly promotes the increase in domestic sales. On this basis, it is further found that the increase in domestic demand also significantly promotes the export of related products. In addition, in order to exclude the possibility that the policy could gain a competitive advantage through the price difference subsidy of domestic market to foreign market. This study uses the above model to study the export price and finds that the price of household appliances does not decline significantly after the policy implementation. This shows that the “home appliances to the countryside” policy did not actually expand exports by violating WTO rules. This study further proves through causal inference that the mechanism of this policy acting on export is actually through improving enterprise productivity, which leads to the effect of expanding product scale or improving product quality. Our results show strong robustness in the regression of different time periods, in the case of adding other control variables, in the regression of different regions and provinces, and in the case of different estimation specifications. These findings indicate that domestic demand has a strong promoting effect on external demand, which provides a micro theoretical mechanism for internal circulation to promote external circulation in the new development concept of double cycle mutual promotion at home and abroad. The double cycle development strategy has important theoretical significance. The relationship between domestic demand and external demand is not simply mutual substitution. Different relations have different policy implications behind them.
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