| 唐云锋,张帆,毛军.地方债务风险溢出效应及其影响的测度分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,(9):139-158 |
| 地方债务风险溢出效应及其影响的测度分析 |
| Research on Regional Heterogeneity and Spatial Linkage Effect of Local Government Debt Risk |
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| 中文关键词: 房地产价格 金融风险 地方债务风险 地区异质性 |
| 英文关键词: Real Estate Financial Risk Local Government Debt Risk Regional Heterogeneity |
| 基金项目:本文获得浙江省自科基金一般项目“空间效应视角下地方债务与房价的风险强化机制研究”（LY20G030014）和国家社科基金一般项目“金融安全视角下房地产与地方债务风险叠加效应及其防控研究”（18BJY209）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究目标：探究中国地方债务风险溢出诱发的房地产价格波动与金融风险，及其对政府债务风险反馈所形成的空间联动效应。研究方法：运用Dagum基尼系数、空间面板联立模型和空间面板门槛模型进行实证检验。研究发现：中国地方债务风险区域间的差距呈现下降趋势，本地区和邻近地区房地产价格会影响区域性地方债务风险，本地区和邻近地区金融风险会诱发区域性地方债务风险。研究创新：刻画了中国地方债务风险的地区差异特征，并揭示了中国房地产价格、金融风险对地方债务风险的空间异质性。研究价值：对明确中国地方债务风险的空间发展格局认知提供依据，进而为有效降低中国区域性地方债务风险提供政策启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Research Objectives: This paper explores the house price fluctuation and financial risk induced by local government debt risk spillover in China, and the spatial linkage effect on government debt risk feedback. Research Methods: Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial panel simultaneous model and spatial panel threshold model are used for empirical test. Research Findings: The results show that the regional gap of China‘s local government debt risk presents a downward trend, the real estate prices of the region and its adjacent regions will reduce the regional local government debt risk, and the financial risks of the region and its adjacent regions will induce the regional local government debt risk. Research Innovations: This paper describes the regional differences of local government debt risk in China, and reveals the spatial heterogeneity of China‘s real estate price and financial risk on local government debt risk. Research Value: This paper can provide a basis for understanding the spatial development pattern of China‘s local government debt risk, and then provide policy implications for effectively reducing China‘s regional local government debt risk. |
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