文章摘要
郭旭,孙晓华,翟钰.地区产业结构升级速度的测算及时空演变分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2021,(9):98-116
地区产业结构升级速度的测算及时空演变分析
Analysis of the Measurement and Spatial and Temporal Evolution of the Upgrading Speed of Regional Industrial Structures
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 产业结构升级速度  制造业  服务业  八大经济区  空间相关性
英文关键词: Industrial Structure Upgrading Rate  Manufacturing Industry  Service Industry  Eight Economic Zones  Spatial Relevance
基金项目:本文获得国家自然科学基金面上项目“面向突破性技术的创新生态结构优化与治理体系设计研究”(72074043)、国家自然科学基金青年项目“双重社会网络下劳动力区位选择机制与技能溢价效应:从微观机理到宏观表现”(72003018)、教育部人文社科青年基金项目“社会网络视角下城市劳动力群分的动力机制与选择效应研究”(20YJC790037)的资助。
作者单位
郭旭 大连海事大学航运经济管理学院 
孙晓华 大连理工大学经济管理学院 
翟钰 大连理工大学经济管理学院 
中文摘要:
      研究目标:测算地区产业结构升级速度并探究其时空演变规律。研究方法:比较Moore结构变动指数、Michaeli指数和Lilien指数的局限性,将行业特征纳入修正的Lilien指数,构建一种综合衡量产业结构变动速度和方向的新方法。研究发现:全国来看,2006~2016年产业结构升级速度为正和负的省份比例为12∶18,大部分省份产业结构升级出现“开倒车”的现象;不同经济区的测算结果表明,沿海经济区产业结构升级速度普遍快于内陆地区,中部地区相较于西部内陆地区更为缓慢;时间趋势上,八大经济区呈现明显的阶段性特征,可以分为2006~2008年的短暂下调期、2009~2013年的波动上升期和2014~2016年的平稳上升期;制造业与服务业比较而言,制造业内部结构升级速度有所放缓,服务业则表现出逐步优化的势头;空间相关性的估计结果显示,我国产业结构升级速度整体上存在空间正相关,其中制造业的空间相关性略高于服务业,东部和中西部地区的产业结构升级速度呈现出截然相反的集聚情况。研究创新:相较于已有测算方法,本文构造的产业结构升级速度能够同时考虑到调整速度与优化方向,且兼顾到行业特征,可以应用到细分行业的分析中。研究价值:对加快现代产业体系建设具有重要的理论价值,为新时代区域经济协调发展和供给侧结构性改革下产业发展政策的调整提供可靠依据。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives:To measure the rate of upgrading of regional industrial structure and explore its spatial and temporal evolution pattern. Research Methods:Comparing the limitations of the Moore Structural Change Index, the Michaeli Index and the Lilien Index, the industry characteristics are incorporated into the modified Lilien Index to construct a new method to comprehensively measure the speed and direction of industrial structural change. Research Findings:Nationwide, the ratio of provinces with positive and negative industrial structure upgrading speed during 2006~2016 is 12∶18, and most provinces and regions have the phenomenon of “driving backwards” in industrial structure upgrading; the measurement results of different economic zones show that the industrial structure upgrading speed of coastal economic zones is generally faster than that of inland regions, and the central region is slower than the western inland region. In terms of time trend, the eight economic regions show obvious phase characteristics, which can be divided into a brief downward adjustment period from 2006 to 2008, a fluctuating upward period from 2009 to 2013 and a stable upward period from 2014 to 2016; in comparison with the manufacturing industry and the service industry, the structural upgrading speed of the manufacturing industry has slowed down, while the service industry has shown a gradual optimization trend; the estimation results of spatial correlation show that there is an overall positive spatial correlation between the speed of industrial structure upgrading in China, among which the spatial correlation of manufacturing industry is slightly higher than that of service industry, and the speed of industrial structure upgrading in eastern and central and western regions shows diametrically opposite clustering. Research Innovations:Compared with the existing measurement methods, the industrial structure upgrading speed constructed in this paper can take into account the adjustment speed and optimization direction at the same time, and take into account the industry characteristics, which can be applied to the analysis of subdivided industries.Research Value:It has an important theoretical value to accelerate the construction of modern industrial system and provides a reliable basis for the adjustment of industrial development policies under the coordinated development of regional economy and supply-side structural reform in the new era.
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