| 胡桂华,吴婷,范署姗.人口普查质量评估中的三系统估计量研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2020,(8):159-175 |
| 人口普查质量评估中的三系统估计量研究 |
| Triple System Estimator for Census Quality Evaluation |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 三次捕获模型 条件最大似然估计 总体规模估计量 不完整三维列联表 对数线性模型 |
| 英文关键词: Three Time Capture Model Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation Population Size Estimator Incomplete Three Contingency Table Log Linear Model |
| 基金项目:本文获得全国统计科学研究重点项目“人口普查登记误差估计研究”（2019LZ28）和教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“人口普查漏报估计研究”（20YJA910002）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究目标：用三系统估计量替代双系统估计量，以解决后者由于普查与质量评估调查不独立引起的交互作用偏差问题。研究方法：采用数理模型与实地调研相结合的方法研究总体人口的等概率分层，三次捕获模型，三系统估计量及其抽样方差估计量。研究发现：对数线性模型、最大似然估计、不完整三维列联表和对数似然比是建立和选择三次捕获模型或三系统估计量的重要工具；三系统估计量不受三份人口名单是否独立的限制。研究创新：阐释三次捕获模型与三系统估计量的内在逻辑关系；提出抽样登记的三系统估计量。研究价值：三系统估计量应用于中国2020年人口普查净误差估计，开创世界人口普查净误差估计领域应用三系统估计量的先河。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Research Objectives: Replacing the dual system estimator with the triple system estimator to solve the problem of the former on correlation bias caused by the dependence between the census and quality evaluation survey.Research Methods: The methods of combining mathematical model with field survey are used to study the population strata of equal probability, three time capture model, triple system estimator and its sampling variance estimator.Research Findings: Log linear model, maximum likelihood estimation, incomplete three-dimensional contingency table, and log likelihood ratio are important tools to establish and select three time capture model or triple system estimator.The triple system estimator is not limited by the independence of three population lists.Research Innovations: This paper explains the internal logic relationship between the three time capture model and the triple system estimator and proposes the triple system estimator with sampling enumerations.Research Value: The triple system estimator will be firstly applied to China's 2020 net census error estimation, which will be a pioneer in the application of the triple system estimator in the field of world's net census error estimation. |
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