文章摘要
唐晓彬,王亚男,张岩.“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险测度研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2020,(8):140-158
“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险测度研究
Research on Measurement of Investment Risk in Countries Along the Belt and Road
  
DOI:
中文关键词: “一带一路”  VHSD-EM  指标体系  投资风险
英文关键词: The Belt and Road  VHSD-EM  Index System  Investment Risk
基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金一般项目“大数据背景下地区主要宏观经济指标预测预判方法体系研究”(16BTJ027)、对外经济贸易大学惠园优秀青年学者项目(18YQ04)、对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“一带一路”研究数据库建设项目(TS4-03)、对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新项目(201916)的资助。
作者单位
唐晓彬 对外经济贸易大学统计学院 
王亚男 对外经济贸易大学统计学院 
张岩 对外经济贸易大学统计学院 
中文摘要:
      研究目标:探讨对“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险测度的有效方法,揭示沿线国家及区域投资风险的动态演变规律。研究方法:构建了“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险的指标体系与风险测度的“VHSD-EM”模型,测算了2014~2017年“一带一路”沿线国家的投资风险指数,并综合运用概率分析模型、变异系数等方法考察了投资风险的变化特征。研究发现:“一带一路”沿线国家之间、区域内部以及区域之间的风险水平均存在较大差异。沿线国家投资风险的整体水平呈现下降态势,但各区域及各维度投资风险的下降幅度存在差异。沿线国家之间投资风险的分化程度呈现一定的缩小趋势。研究创新:首次采用“VHSD-EM”模型将时间因素纳入对“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险的测度,弥补了对“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险动态测度方法研究的不足。研究价值:有效测度出了“一带一路”沿线国家的投资风险,为企业投资规避风险提供了科学决策依据。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: Discussing the effective method of measuring the investment risk of the countries along the belt and road, and revealing the dynamic evolution rule of the investment risks of the countries and regions along the line.Research Methods: Constructing the investment risk measurement system of the belt and road and using the VHSD-EM model to calculate the investment risk index of the countries along the belt and road from 2014~2017. Using probability analysis model, coefficient of variation to study the dynamic evolution law of investment risk.Research Findings: The results show that there is a big difference in the level of investment risk between the countries and regions along the belt and road. Since the belt and road initiative was put forward, the overall level of investment risks in the countries of the belt and road has been decreasing. However, there are differences in the decreasing extent of investment risks in the regions and dimensions. The differentiation degree of investment risks among countries along the line shows a certain trend of reduction.Research Innovations: The VHSD-EM model is adopted for the first time to measure the investment risk of the countries along the belt and road, and make up the shortage of dynamic measurement and research of investment risks along the belt and road.Research Value: Effectively measuring the investment risk of the countries along the belt and road and providing a scientific decision basis for enterprises to avoid risks.
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