邹宏元,崔冉.实际汇率和关税税率变动对中国进出口的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2020,(2):143-161 |
实际汇率和关税税率变动对中国进出口的影响 |
Effects of Real Exchange Rate and Tariff Rate Changes on Chinas Import and Export |
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DOI: |
中文关键词: 实际汇率关税税率马歇尔-勒纳条件国际弹性之谜非对称性 |
英文关键词: Real Exchange Rate Tariff Rate Marshall Lerner Condition Riddle of International Elasticity Asymmetry |
基金项目:本文受到国家社科基金重大项目(18ZDA102)、国家社科基金重点项目(18AZD001)、国家自然科学基金青年项目(71904077)、教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(19JJZ790005)、天津社科规划项目(JLJ18-003)、南开大学中央高校基本科研经费项目(63172004)、江苏省高等学校自然科学基金面上项目(17KJB550004)的资助。 |
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中文摘要: |
研究目标:分析和比较实际汇率和关税税率变动对中国进出口的影响。研究方法:基于2002~2014年中国与233个贸易伙伴双边HS6位数编码的进出口数据,运用扩展的引力模型进行实证检验。研究发现:人民币实际汇率贬值(升值)会促进中国出口(进口),关税税率减让可以促进中国进出口,且都存在非对称性影响,后者的促进效果更明显,但波动性较大;实际汇率和关税税率变动对中国进出口的影响在不同贸易伙伴和不同行业之间存在显著差异。研究创新:在统一的计量模型设定下,就关税和汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响进行比较研究,并使用更加细分的贸易数据来缓解“内生性”问题,对出口和进口分别进行研究。研究价值:为中国制定相关贸易政策提供参考。 |
英文摘要: |
Research Objectives: Analyzing and comparing on the effects of real exchange rate and tariff rate changes on Chinas import and export.Research Methods: Based on HS 6 digit level trade data between China and 233 trading partners from 2002 to 2014, this paper uses an extended gravity model to do empirical research Research Findings: The depreciation (appreciation) of the real exchange rate of RMB can promote Chinas export (import), and the reduction of tariff rate can promote Chinas import and export The effects of tariff rate are larger than real exchange rate, however, much more volatility Both of them have asymmetric effects on Chinas import and export Meanwhile, the effects of real exchange rate and tariff rate changes on Chinas import and export are significantly different between different trading partners and different industries Research Innovations: Under the setting of unified econometric model, this paper uses more segmented trade data, which can alleviate the “endogenous” problem, to make comparative study on the impact of tariff and exchange rate changes on Chinas import and export trade Research Value: Provide references for China to formulate relevant trade policies. |
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