文章摘要
何志强,刘兰娟.GRAS方法的改进及对比研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(11):142-160
GRAS方法的改进及对比研究
A Comparative Study on the Improvement of the GRAS Method for Updating the Social Accounting Matrix and Input-Output Table
  
DOI:
中文关键词: GRAS  超越方程  保号  保零  社会核算矩阵  投入产出表
英文关键词: GRAS  Transcendental Equation  Sign-preserving  Zero-preserving  Social Accounting Matrix  Input-Output Table
基金项目:本文获得教育部人文社会科学研究项目“提高劳动报酬占比的理论、实证与政策:基于CGE模型的研究”(12YJA790086)的资助。
作者单位
何志强 上海财经大学信息管理与工程学院 
刘兰娟 上海财经大学信息管理与工程学院 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:改进GRAS方法,减少社会核算矩阵(SAM表)调平和投入产出表(IO表)更新的先验信息丢失。研究方法:对比GRAS及其改进的AGRAS、UGRAS、SGRAS、IGRAS等方法,针对保零、保凸、保号、无偏等特点,构建EGRAS方法,并进行了数值模拟。研究发现:综合AIL、Theil‘s U、GDM等误差指数,EGRAS方法具有保号、保凸、保零、无偏、避免正负项抵消等优点,并能有效保留先验信息,有推广价值。研究创新:构建保号、保凸、保零、无偏、避免正负项抵消的EGRAS方法进行SAM表调平和IO表更新,并无须定义0/0和0ln0值,而且可求全局最优解。研究价值:在SAM表调平和IO表更新时,减少先验信息丢失,提高调平的经济学含义。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper effectively develops the methods of updating social accounting matrix and input-output table and minimizes information loss. Research Methods: The EGRAS method is constructed to compare with the GRAS method including the AGRAS、UGRAS、SGRAS and IGRAS. Then the method is applied to numerical simulation. Research Findings:Either calculation errors are made or different information gain measures are compared. The numerical results show that EGRAS which is unbiased and convex consistently outperforms both sign-preserving and strictly zero-preserving when increasing and decreasing cell values occur together. Moreover, EGRAS can overweigh large errors in small coefficients. Research Innovations:The research improves GRAS and forms the optimal model-EGRAS which unnecessarily defines 0/0 and 0ln0. Moreover, the global optimal solution can be found. Research Value:It‘s a core objective to decrease information loss and increase economic importance through EGRAS when updating the Social Accounting Matrix and Input-Output Table.
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