文章摘要
文东伟.全球价值链分工与中国的贸易失衡[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(11):39-57
全球价值链分工与中国的贸易失衡
Institute of International Economics, Nankai University
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 全球价值链分工  国内增加值出口比率  总值贸易差额  增加值贸易差额  贸易失衡
英文关键词: Global Value Chains  the Rate of Domestic Value Added of Gross Exports  Gross Trade Surplus  Value-Added Trade Surplus in Final Demand  the Bilateral Trade Imbalance
基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CJY083)、中央高校(南开大学)基本科研业务费重点学科骨干人才资助项目(NKZXA1405)、南开大学中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心、亚洲研究中心(AS1607)以及中央专项基本科研业务费项目(63185009)的资助。
作者单位
文东伟 南开大学国际经济研究所 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:测算中国1995~2009年的国内增加值出口比率,并从增加值贸易和总值贸易的角度对比分析中国的贸易失衡问题。研究方法:本文利用OECD-WTO开发的增加值贸易数据库,基于增加值贸易核算方法进行核算和估计。研究发现:中国的国内增加值出口比率显现先迅速下降后缓慢上升的“V”形反转趋势。与增加值贸易统计相比,传统的总值贸易统计显著夸大了中国的贸易失衡程度。分行业来看,中国制造业整体的贸易顺差规模被夸大了40%左右,其中劳动密集型行业和技术密集型行业的贸易顺差规模分别被夸大了50%和60%以上。分市场来看,中国对欧美主要发达国家的贸易顺差规模被夸大了30%左右,对亚洲新兴经济体的贸易逆差规模被夸大了近80%。研究创新:从增加值贸易的角度测算了中国在全球价值链分工中的地位及其演变趋势。研究价值:揭示了中国在全球增加值创造中的地位。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper is to measure the Rate of Domestic Value Added of Gross Exports (RDVAE) in China from 1995 to 2009, and analyzes the China‘s bilateral trade imbalance from the perspective of gross trade and trade in value added, respectively. Research Methods: Based on the accounting of the trade in value added, this paper uses the Trade in Value Added Database (TiVA), which is developed jointly by OECD and WTO. Research Findings:China‘s RDVAE has a V-type evolution trend, which means the RDVAE declines rapidly at the beginning, but increases slowly then. The comparisons of the gross trade surplus and the value-added trade surplus in final demand show that the trade surplus, the trade deficit and the bilateral trade imbalance in China are all exaggerated significantly according to the traditional gross trade measures. According to the traditional gross trade measures, the trade surplus in Chinese manufacturing industries is exaggerated by almost 40%.The trade surplus in Chinese labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries is exaggerated by around 50% and 60%, respectively. The bilateral trade imbalance between China and China‘s main export markets and main import markets is also exaggerated. For example, the trade surplus between China and main developed countries is exaggerated by around 30%, and the trade deficit between China and Asian emerging economies is exaggerated by almost 80%. Research Innovations:This paper explores the evolution trend of China‘s value added trade in the global value chains. Research Value: Our study provides the theoretical and factual evidences for China dealing with the increasing trade protectionism and anti-dumping to China.
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