文章摘要
陈明华,仲崇阳,张晓萌.中国人口老龄化的区域差异与极化趋势:1995~2014[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(10):111-125
中国人口老龄化的区域差异与极化趋势:1995~2014
Research on Regional Difference and Polarization Trend of Population Aging from 1995 to 2014 in China
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 人口老龄化  区域差异  泰尔指数  极化指数  Kernel密度估计
英文关键词: Population Aging  Spatial Difference  Theil Index  Polarization Index  Kernel Density Estimation
基金项目:本文得到山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2016GM18)、国家社会科学基金项目(16BJL033)、教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(15YJC790011)、山东省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(J15WG09)的资助。
作者单位
陈明华 山东财经大学经济学院 
仲崇阳 山东财经大学经济学院 
张晓萌 山东财经大学经济学院 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:考察中国人口老龄化的区域差异与极化趋势。研究方法:采用泰尔指数分析人口老龄化的区域差异大小及来源,采用Wolfson指数、ER指数、EGR指数、LU指数、Kernel密度估计方法分析人口老龄化的极化程度与演进趋势。研究发现:我国人口老龄化水平总体上升,但呈现非均衡分布态势;东部、西部的区域内差异较大,中部、东北部则相对较小;区域内差异是影响总体差异的主要因素;我国人口老龄化的空间极化程度呈下降趋势,多极化趋势有所缓解。研究创新:基于四区域比较视角,不仅考察了人口老龄化的总体差异,还考察了区域内差异和区域间差异;不仅分析了人口老龄化的两极、多极分化程度,还研究了人口老龄化的极化演进趋势。研究价值:刻画我国人口老龄化的分异规律与极化趋势,为制定区域人口发展战略、协同应对人口老龄化提供借鉴。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper is to analyze the regional differences and evolution trend of Chinese aging.Research Methods:This paper is to analyze and decompose the regional differences of population aging by the Theil index,investigate the degree and evolution trend of polarization by Wolfson,ER,EGR,LU index and kernel density estimation.Research Findings:The level of Chinese aging is on the rise and the spatial difference of is featured by inequality.There are greater differences within the region in the east and west, and there are smaller differences within the region between the middle and north-eastern part.The total difference is mainly caused by the differences within the region.In addition,the spatial polarization degree of Chinese aging experiences a downward trend and the trend of multipolarization has also been relieved.Research Innovations:Based on four regional comparison perspective,this paper not only examines the overall difference in population aging, but also examines regional and interregional differences.It not only analyzes polarization and multilevel differentiation of the population aging,but also estimates the polarization evolution trend of population aging.Research Value:This paper attempts to provide reference of depicting the regional difference of population aging and space polarization,formulating the strategy of regional population development and coordinating together to deal with the population aging.
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