文章摘要
易信,刘凤良.金融发展与产业结构转型[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(6):21-39
金融发展与产业结构转型
Financial Development and Structure Transformation
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 金融发展  金融深化  金融结构  结构转型
英文关键词: Financial Development  Financial Deepening  Financial Structure  Structure Transformation
基金项目:本文获得国家社科基金重点项目“中高速增长阶段收入分配调整与产业结构升级研究”(14AZD019)的资助。
作者单位
易信 国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院 
刘凤良 中国人民大学经济学院 
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中文摘要:
      研究目标:金融发展对产业结构转型的影响。研究方法:构建纳入金融因素的非平衡增长理论模型,并基于1981~2010年的跨国面板数据进行实证检验。研究发现:金融发展通过加快现代部门技术创新推动资源从工业部门配置到服务业部门来促进产业结构转型,但由于金融发展对技术创新的影响最终会进入边际报酬递减阶段,其对产业结构转型的正向影响会伴随产业发展阶段上升而呈倒“U”形关系;金融深化和市场主导型金融结构均能显著促进工业向服务业结构转型,市场主导型金融结构对结构转型的影响系数会随服务业与工业增加值比值的演进而呈倒“U”形关系,其拐点发生在服务业与工业增加值比值1.3附近。研究创新:拓展非平衡增长理论模型,构建包含金融因素的理论模型探讨传导机制;结合金融发展对产业结构转型影响的非线性特征,综合采用多种计量方法进行实证分析。研究价值:论证了加快金融体系发展有助于产业结构转型,并存在与产业结构相匹配的最优金融结构,指出我国目前的市场主导型金融结构已接近效率拐点,因而中长期的金融发展政策应以提升金融效率为主,调整金融结构为辅。
英文摘要:
      Research Objectives: This paper is to discover the effect of financial development to structure transformation. Research Methods: This paper proposes a structural transformation model incorporating financial factors, and does empirical test based on the cross-country panel data from 1981 to 2010. Research Findings: Financial development promotes structure transformation by accelerating technological innovation of modern sector. However, as for the impact of financial development on innovation would enter the stage of diminishing returns, the positive effect of financial development on structure transformation would be inverted U-shaped as the evolution of the industrial development. Empirical analysis shows that the financial deepening and market-oriented financial structure promote structure transformation significantly, and the influence of the market-oriented financial structure on structure transformation would be inverted U-shaped as the evolution of the ratio of service and industrial added value, whose inflection point occurs near the ratio 1.3. Research Innovations: This paper expands unbalanced growth model to propose a structural transformation model incorporating financial factors to explore the theoretical mechanism. According to the non-linear effects between financial development and structure transformation, this paper does robustness empirical analysis using multiple econometrical methods. Research Value: This paper shows that financial development is conducive to the structure transformation, but there is an optimal financial structure to match the industrial structure also. As China‘s current market-oriented financial structure is close to the efficiency inflection point, which indicates that China‘s financial development policy should be to enhance financial efficiency and supplemented by adjusting financial structure in the future.
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