赵越强,柏满迎.中国养老保障体系转制债务风险的压力测试评估[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,(4):80-96 |
中国养老保障体系转制债务风险的压力测试评估 |
Stressing Testing the Transition Debt of Pension Plan in China |
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DOI: |
中文关键词: 转制债务 压力测试 随机情景 延迟退休 |
英文关键词: Transition Debt Stress Test Stochastic Scenario Postpone Retirement |
基金项目:本文获得国家自然科学基金“不确定环境下我国社会养老保险基金偿付能力的压力测试和评估研究”(71571007)、国家自然科学基金重点项目“政府资产负债测度核算的理论方法与政策研究”(71333014)的资助。 |
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中文摘要: |
研究目标:评估中国养老保障体系转轨期间面临的债务风险。研究方法:在构建转制债务模型的基础上预测存量和流量的债务规模。同时,设计确定性情景、VECM随机情景和延迟退休情景对转轨期间的债务开展压力测试评估。研究发现:我国养老保障体系预计在2081年实现转轨,延迟退休年龄可以推迟债务到达峰值的时点,但是转制债务的规模将大幅增加。研究创新:本文构建了流量和存量的转制债务模型,借助银行业的压力测试工具评估不确定转制债务的风险。研究价值:压力测试工具可以有效评估不确定环境对于债务规模的影响,为转轨期间养老基金的预算与风险管理提供技术支持。 |
英文摘要: |
Research Objectives:Evaluating the uncertain debt risk of pension plan in China during transition period. Research Methods: In terms of the transition debt actuarial models, this research projects the stock and flow shift pension liability. Then, deterministic scenario, stochastic scenario (VECM generated) and postponed retirement scenario are designed to implement stress tests of transition debt risk. Research Findings: China‘s pension plan is expected to finish the transition in 2081. Postponing retirement age will delay the peak time of debt, but the total scale will increase substantially. Research Innovations: This paper constructs the stock and flow transition debt model. Moreover, the stress test tool of the banking industry is introduced to evaluate the uncertain transition debt risks. Research Value: Stress test method can effectively assess the impact of uncertain environment on debt scale and provide technical support for pension fund budget and risk management during the transition period. |
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