| 王方方,李宁.我国财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,(11):132-147 | | 我国财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应 | | The Time-varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Industrial Structure Optimization in China | | | | DOI： | | 中文关键词: 时变参数 财政政策 产业结构优化 | | 英文关键词: Time-varying Parameter Fiscal Policy Industrial Structure Optimization | | 基金项目:本文受到国家社科基金重大项目“提高发展平衡性、包容性和可持续动力机制研究”(项目批准号：15ZDC012)的资助。 | | | 中文摘要: | | 研究目标：财政政策对产业结构优化的时变性影响。研究方法：构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型，进而通过三维脉冲响应展开时变性分析。研究发现：财政政策对产业结构优化确实产生了时变效应，在经济衰退时期，应该增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比，结合小幅度减税、提高营业税和消费税占比；在经济平稳时期，应该减少税收、提高营业税占比、降低增值税占比，结合小幅度增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比、降低一般公共服务支出占比；在经济高涨时期，应该增加财政支出、提高科技支出和投资性支出占比，结合小幅度减税、提高所得税占比、降低营业税占比。研究创新：应用时变参数计量模型研究了财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应。研究价值：有助于重新认识财政政策与产业结构优化的关系。 | | 英文摘要: | | Research Objectives:The time-varying effects of fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization are tested in this paper.Research Methods:We construct a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility,and make three dimensional impulse responses based on this model.Research Findings:The fiscal policy indeed makes time-varying effects on industrial structure optimization.When it is in the period of economic recession,we should increase fiscal expenditure,increase the rate of investment expenditure,and reduce tax revenue,increase the rate of business tax and consumption tax.In the stable economy period,we should reduce tax revenue,increase the rate of business tax,reduce the rate of value-added tax,and increase fiscal expenditure,increase the rate of investment expenditure,and reduce the rate of general public service expenditure.In the period of economic prosperity,we should increase fiscal expenditure,increase the rate of technology expenditure and investment expenditure,and reduce tax revenue,increase the rate of income tax,reduce the rate of business tax,which is beneficial to promoting industrial structure optimization.Research Innovations:Adopt a time-varying parameter model to study the time-varying effects of fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization.Research Value:It is helpful to re-understand the relationship between the fiscal policy and industrial structure optimization. | | 查看全文 |
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