| 许岩,尹希果.技术选择：“因势利导”还是“适度赶超”？[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,(8):55-71 |
| 技术选择：“因势利导”还是“适度赶超”？ |
| Technology Selection: “In the Light of General Trend” or “Moderate Catch Up”? |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 技术选择 因势利导 适度赶超 人力资本 全要素生产率 |
| 英文关键词: Technology Selection In the Light of General Trend Moderate Catch Up Human Capital TFP |
| 基金项目:本文获得国家社会科学基金西部项目“新常态下人力资本集聚外部效应与产业结构调整研究”（15XRK003）的资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究目标：面对“因势利导”与“适度赶超”两种看似相悖的技术选择战略，发展中经济体应该如何抉择。研究方法：利用1990~2014年的中国省级宏观数据与典型行业数据，通过多种实证工具分析了不同人力资本条件下技术选择战略对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：20世纪90年代以来，赶超式的技术选择战略总体上抑制了中国全要素生产率的增长。而人力资本则构筑了适宜采用“因势利导”还是“适度赶超”战略的分水岭。在人力资本积累不足的情况下，技术选择必须严格遵循要素禀赋的演进趋势；而在人力资本积累充分的情况下，适度偏离要素禀赋的技术战略将是更具效率的政策选择。研究创新：以人力资本为线索为两种技术选择战略搭建了一条能够相互实现逻辑自洽的理论框架。研究价值：为中国各地区选择适宜的技术进步路径提供了参考依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Research Objectives:Faced with two seemingly contrary technology choice strategies: In the Light of General Trend and Moderate Catch Up, how should developing economies to choose? Research Methods: By using provincial macro data and typical industry data of China from 1990 to 2014, this paper analyzes the effect of technology selection strategy on TFP under the condition of different human capital through varied empirical tools. Research Findings: In the mass, the catch up strategy has restrained the growth of TFP of China since 1990s. Human capital builds the watershed for the technology choice strategies of “in the light of its general trend” or “moderately catch up”. When human capital is insufficient, the technology choice strategy must strictly follow the evolution trend of the factor endowment. When human capital is sufficient, deviating from factor endowment will be a more efficient choice. Research Innovations: Taking human capital as a clue, this paper builds a theoretical framework to realize logical self-consistency for the two technology choice strategies. Research Value: The finding of this paper provides a reference for selecting appropriate technical progress path in China. |
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