| 侯新烁,周靖祥.需求引致增长：三大结构效应的时空演化[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,30(5):18-32 |
| 需求引致增长：三大结构效应的时空演化 |
| Demands Cause Economic Growth |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 需求 增长 异质性 |
| 英文关键词: Demands Growth Heterogeneity |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 推进可持续发展思维模式转变已成为共识，在宏观经济管理实践中需求引致增长的时空演化特征却往往被忽视，我们的研究认为需要充分发挥“三大”需求结构转变的正效应。本研究基于时空加权回归方法对需求引致经济增长的局部结构效应进行识别，发现区域经济发展不平衡且具有时空异质性。结果表明：1）不平衡发展方式必然导致增长与发展脱轨，东部和中部地区需求与增长基本实现协调；2）消费失衡显著，存在以牺牲消费获取增长的发展路径依赖；3）东部长期保持相对较高的投资拉动增长的结构效应，富裕地区对贫穷地区的发展权利剥夺并未停止。政策含义是：着力于需求结构性扭转方面的研究能够找到转变增长方式实现可持续发展的新“药方”。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Since sustainable development has become a consensus, the spatio-temporal characteristics of relationship between demands and growth are often been neglected in macroeconomic management practice. This paper suggests that it is urgently needed to give full play to positive effects of demands’ structure changes. Based on Geographically and temporally weighted regression, this paper captured the local demand effects, and found the unbalanced development’s existence. Results show that: 1) unbalanced development mode will inevitably lead to the disrupted between growth and development and demand and growth have basically realized coordination in eastern and central regions; 2) unbalance is significant in consumption part, and we are pursuing growth at the price of inhibiting consumption; 3) a high effect of investment on growth remains in eastern region, the exploitation from the rich to the poor didn’t stop ever. The implication: new "prescription" can be found in the torsion of demand structure to realize sustainable development. |
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